How Much Bubble Tea to Order, and When to Reorder: Forecasting Demand for Cafés and Shops
Ning MaShare
Getting your bubble tea order size right is one of the simplest ways to protect margin. Order too little and you sell out. Order too much and you tie up cash in stock that may not sell before it expires.
This guide walks through how to turn a first fortnight's sales into a repeatable order size and a reorder point, using TeaJoy's own pack sizes, our 3 to 4 working day lead time, and the 30 day rule on an opened fruit kit.
Trade terms throughout: £200 minimum order, free delivery, dispatched next day, 3 to 4 working days to arrive.
Step 1: Start with a first fortnight's sales
If you are new to bubble tea, order small and measure. One box is enough to test. The 10-drink Classic Milk Tea kit at £25, or the 20-drink Mango & Passionfruit kit at £40, both delivered free, let you run a two-week trial without over-committing.
Track three numbers across those two weeks:
- Drinks sold per day – how many bubble teas went out the door
- Drinks sold per week – the same figure, rolled up
- Best and worst days – the pattern that tells you when demand spikes
Two weeks is short, but it is enough to see a shape. If you sell six a day in week one and seven in week two, you are not going to jump to thirty. That shape is your baseline.
Step 2: Turn sales into box size
TeaJoy packs come in two useful sizes:
| Kit | Drinks per box | Larger size | Cost per drink |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fruit tea kits (Mango & Passionfruit, Passionfruit & Strawberry, Strawberry & Mango) | 20 | 80 (case of four) | £2.00 / £1.75 |
| Classic Milk Tea kit | 10 | 40 (case of four) | £2.50 / £2.00 |
A simple rule: match your fortnightly sales to the smaller box size first, then move to the case when the small box is selling out comfortably before the fortnight is up.
Examples:
| If you sell per fortnight | Start with |
|---|---|
| Up to 20 fruit teas | One 20-drink fruit box |
| 21 to 40 fruit teas | Two 20-drink fruit boxes, or plan a case |
| 41 to 80 fruit teas | An 80-drink case |
| Up to 10 milk teas | One 10-drink milk box |
| 11 to 40 milk teas | A 40-drink milk case |
The larger sizes are a case of four boxes, and each case costs £20 less than four single boxes: £140 against £160 for the fruit tea, £80 against £100 for the milk tea. Bigger boxes bring cost per drink down, but only when the stock sells through.
Step 3: Know how long an opened box lasts
This is the part most cafés get wrong.
Every TeaJoy product has a shelf life of 24 months from production, unopened. Once you open a box, the clock changes:
| Product | Rule once opened |
|---|---|
| Fruit tea kits: 1.2kg syrup bottle and 1.1kg boba tub | Use both within 30 days. Boba goes in the fridge at 0 to 7°C. |
| Milk tea kit: powder and tapioca sachets | One sachet, one drink. Use straight away. No 30 day clock. |
A 20-drink fruit box, once opened, gives you 30 days to pour all 20 drinks. That is the single most useful number in your order planning: your box must sell out in a month, not linger.
The 80-drink fruit case is four separate 20-drink boxes, so you open one at a time and each box starts its own 30 days. You are never holding an opened 80 portions.
The milk tea kit behaves differently. Each drink has its own sachets, opened only when a customer orders. A quiet week leaves no half-used tub behind, which makes it the easier kit to trial before you know your sales.
Step 4: Set your reorder point
Your reorder point is the stock level at which you place the next order, so it arrives before you run out.
TeaJoy dispatches next day, and orders arrive in 3 to 4 working days. Build your reorder point around that lead time, plus a small buffer.
Formula:
Reorder point = (daily sales × lead time in working days) + safety stock
For a café selling six fruit teas a day, on a four-day lead time:
6 × 4 = 24, plus a buffer of 6 = reorder at 30 drinks remaining
For the fruit kit, that means reorder when you have one and a half boxes left. If you are running 20-drink boxes, that is roughly the moment you open the second box.
For a slower café selling two a day on a four-day lead time:
2 × 4 = 8, plus a buffer of 2 = reorder at 10 drinks remaining
That is the moment you open the last box of a 20-drink fruit kit, or the last few drinks of a 10-drink milk kit.
Step 5: Watch the 30 day rule, not just the shelf
For the fruit kits, there is a second signal: the 30 days from opening. If your opened bottle or tub is not going to be used up in the next few days, you have over-ordered, even if the shelf is not empty.
Three checks keep you on track:
- Write the opening date on the syrup bottle and the boba tub. Use by opening date plus 30 days.
- Track drinks per box. If your 20-drink box takes six weeks to sell, you are either ordering too many or your menu is too quiet for that size.
- Run first in, first out. Oldest stock first. If a box has been open three weeks, it goes forward on the shelf.
A note from the box itself: "All products made with natural colours, which may fade over time. This does not affect taste or freshness." So if a pack looks a shade paler than the product photo, the taste is unchanged.
Putting it together: a worked example
A café selling five fruit teas a day:
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Weekly sales | 35 drinks |
| Fortnightly sales | 70 drinks |
| Box size to start with | One 80-drink fruit case (four 20-drink boxes) |
| Drinks per working day | 5 |
| Lead time | 4 working days |
| Daily sales × lead time | 20 |
| Safety stock | 5 |
| Reorder point | 25 drinks left |
| 30 day rule | One 20-drink box open at a time, sold within 30 days |
The same café, selling two a day, would be better on 20-drink boxes, ordered one at a time, and reordering when the second box is opened.
Questions people ask
How much bubble tea should a café order first?
Start with one box. The 10-drink Classic Milk Tea kit at £25 or the 20-drink Mango & Passionfruit kit at £40 is enough for a two-week trial, and both ship free. Trade customers can ask for free samples first.
When should a café reorder bubble tea?
Reorder when your remaining stock equals your daily sales multiplied by the 3 to 4 working day lead time, plus a small buffer. For a café selling six fruit teas a day, that is roughly 30 drinks left.
How long can a fruit tea kit stay open?
The 1.2kg syrup bottle and 1.1kg boba tub in a fruit kit must both be used within 30 days of opening, with the boba kept in the fridge at 0 to 7°C.
Do the milk tea kit sachets go off once opened?
No 30 day clock. Each drink has its own powder and tapioca sachet, opened only when a customer orders, and used straight away.
What is the TeaJoy minimum order?
£200, with free delivery, dispatched next day and arriving in 3 to 4 working days.
Order your next box
Register on our wholesale page or email hello@teajoy.co.uk: free samples, £200 minimum order, free delivery. Every size and flavour is on our commercial kits page, and the storage rules from every pack are in how long bubble tea keeps.